Saturday, August 25, 2012

Paulie's Picks: The 2012 Travers

Where did the summer go? It's already Travers Day at Saratoga! I didn't get to make my annual pilgrimage this year, but I'll be playing the home-version today - there's an all-stakes 50-cent Pick Four that's calling my name.

In the Travers, I'm taking the third choice in the morning line: Neck 'n Neck. Alpha, the favorite, beat him last month in the Jim Dandy (shown above), but there are asterisks. The race was run through slow fractions in the slop, and quite often a horse who gets an early lead in a sloppy race takes it wire wire (as Alpha did). Alpha's not normally a loose on the lead type, and I think that Neck 'n Neck should be positioned a lot closer to the front today, and without a lot of pace pressure. N 'n N was also taken 3-wide into the turns on Jim Dandy day - if Goncalves can get him a little closer to the rail in the early going, which shouldn't be a huge problem from the 8-slot since there's no real speed to his left, then he won't have to lose so much ground.

So here are Paulie's Picks for the four graded stakes on today's card. Plus a little note to the Spa: Until next summer, mon amour!

9th race, The Ballston Spa, G2:
2 - Zagora
4 - Hungry Island
1 - Heavenly Landing

10th race, The Test, G1:
8 - Contested
2 - Aubby K
6 - Jazzy Idea

11th race, The King's Bishop, G1:
9 - Trinniberg
10 - Doctor Chit
3 - Currency Swap

12th race: The Travers, G1:
8 - Neck 'n Neck
10 - Nonios
6 - Alpha

Tune in later for results and video.