Friday, May 20, 2011

Paulie's Picks, The Preakness, 5/21/11



The world is scheduled to end tomorrow, but if we still exist at 6:16 pm, I think that Mucho Macho Man (shown above taking down the Risen Star Stakes) will win the Preakness.

The Preakness tends to be a little less chaotic than the Derby - fewer Giacomo, Mine That Bird, or Animal Kingdom type endings - and speed tends to play a little better. That said, I would hesitate betting on the pure speed because there's a little too much of it: Astrology, Norman Asbjornson, Flashpoint, Shackleford, and Dance City are probably going to be battling it out for the early lead and will probably poop out mid-stretch. Of the speedballs, Shackelford is the most interesting because he held on for a game fourth in the Derby, but then again, that race was pretty slow.

I think the pure closers, like Animal Kingdom, will get to the party a little too late, and so I'm focusing on the stalkers, of which there are two: Mucho Macho Man and Midnight Interlude. I'm tempted to bet the latter because of the price, but the former has the edge in graded stakes experience. So here's how I see the trifecta:

9 - Mucho Macho Man
7 - Midnight Interlude
5 - Shackleford

I'll be watching from a remote undisclosed location, and won't be back to post results until Sunday. If you're still alive, make sure to check back then.