Friday, May 18, 2007

Paulie's Picks, Pimlico & Belmont, 5/19/07

I really don't like to play favorites. I want more than anything else to sniff out an overlay with a special, subtle angle that most guys just can't see. It's not about money, either; it's about bragging rights. I'd settle for money, though, and in that spirit, I'm making an extremely unimaginative call for the Preakness.

No matter how many times I look at the charts, I can't find a good reason to bet against the Derby trifecta. Mint Slewlep, Xchanger, Flying First Class, and CP West all look fully outclassed. King of the Roxy has never won at over 7-and-one-half furlongs. Circular Quay is probably the most credible competition for the Derby trio, but it doesn't look like he's going to get the necessary pace meltdown to set up his closing run.

All that said, it's highly unlikely that the same three horses will finish in the same order two weeks apart, so I'm going with Hard Spun (even though I'm going to box up all three to be on the safe side). In the Derby, Hard Spun turned back a lot of challengers for the lead (including my pick), and was still competitive at the end of the race. By contrast, Street Sense rolled along on the rail through fractions that were not especially punishing and let the front-runners tire themselves out before making his big move in the stretch. So I think it will come out something like this:

7 - Hard Spun
8 - Street Sense
4 - Curlin

I'm going to watch the simulcast at Belmont, and I figure as long as I'm going to be there anyway, I might as well play the whole card. Here's Paulie's Picks for Belmont, 5/18/07:

1st race:
10 - Megatrend
6 - For Gill
4 - Sahm Iahm

2nd Race:
4 - The Duke of Stanco
2 - Wild Wizard
7 - Charlie Caliente

3rd race:
3 - Abeautifulsight
1 - Pacific Sun
5 - Wannabourbonorme

4th race:
5 - Winaway
4 - Papershoes
7 - Our Brave Hobbit

5th race:
7 - Dontess
6 - Appealing Spring
3 - Devilshire

6th race:
3 - Gentle Touch
2 - Defrereoftheheart
4 - Stormy Success

7th race:
2 - Super Nationals
9 - Fairway Drive
4 - Calagaitor

8th race:
6 - Silmaril
3 - Sugar Shake
5 - Teammate

9th race:
6 - Premium Wine
2 - Call Me Larry
9 - Bird of Play

Tune in tomorrow night for results.